Day 26. The president says the war is over. Iran just launched 40 missiles.
Washington sent a ceasefire proposal to Tehran — and the largest ground deployment of the war on the same day. Iran called it “a country negotiating with itself.” They’re not wrong.
The commander-in-chief is getting his war briefings as two-minute highlight reels. No bad news. No full picture. Just strike footage.
Meanwhile, 20% of the world’s LNG supply is offline for years. Iran is deciding which countries get to use the Strait of Hormuz and which don’t — picking off American alliances one tanker at a time. Lebanon just expelled Iran’s ambassador. Israel is preparing to invade to the Litani River. And the 82nd Airborne is wheels up to a war that officially isn’t happening.
We assess a ceasefire framework within 72 hours at under 30%. The reason is worse than the number: diplomacy may have no one on the other end to answer the phone. The Revolutionary Guards don’t negotiate. They veto.
This is the most dangerous overnight brief we’ve produced.
Listen now.
Full SITREP here
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